Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Sep 12 2024 03:03:28 AWUS01 KWNH 120303 FFGMPD FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-120900- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0992 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1102 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Areas affected...Eastern LA...Central and Southern MS...Southwest AL...Far Western FL Panhandle Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 120300Z - 120900Z SUMMARY...Extremely heavy rain associated with Tropical Storm Francine will continue to promote numerous to widespread areas of life-threatening flash flooding heading into the overnight hours, which may include considerable to locally catastrophic impacts. DISCUSSION...Tropical Storm Francine at 03Z (10pm CDT) is located 35 miles west-northwest of New Orleans, LA and is moving northeast at 16 mph. While the storm is continuing to rapidly weaken as it moves farther inland, there continues to be some very strong convection around the northeast quadrant of the circulation including what is left of the storm's eyewall. Rainfall rates continue to be locally very high and on the order of 2 to 3 inches/hour. Very strong moisture convergence and a nose of moderate instability with MLCAPE values of 1500 J/kg continues to focus around the eastern semicircle of the storm, and this will likely help to sustain the strong and organized character of the convection for the next 3 to 6 hours. However, by later in the night, the storm is expected to begin attaining some baroclinic features due to very strong shear, dry air entrainment and increasing interaction with a frontal zone. This should favor the rainfall shield of Francine becoming more asymmetric, with heavy rainfall situated increasingly poleward of the center of circulation into areas of southwest and central MS, and also within some strong banding features east of the center where there will still be strong moisture convergence and the transport of stronger instability from the Gulf of Mexico. Some of these stronger convective bands are expected to impact areas of southern MS, southwest AL and potentially the far western FL Panhandle. Rainfall rates immediately ahead of the storm track and within the stronger bands east of the center will likely still be capable of reaching 2 to 3 inches/hour overnight, and some additional storm totals associated with Francine going through 09Z (4AM CDT) are expected to reach 3 to 6 inches with isolated heavier amounts possible. There has already been a Flash Flood Emergency issued for a portion of the I-10 corridor in southeast LA, and additional numerous to widespread areas of life-threatening flash flooding can be expected overnight along the path of Francine. This may include considerable to locally catastrophic impacts. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-dIjc5ed-xJmsmjSDfG4_21BBPCA0zs5h6HtqjxURAFDGdci27prJs2ZHKJ6joxNBsz4= IBzYLRAzuV4PCbGW7xweIFk$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...MOB... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 32258918 31908815 31108726 30568706 30248742=20 30238828 30098903 29858963 29889073 30519117=20 31669066 32159003=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .