Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Sep 12 2024 00:28:57

AWUS01 KWNH 120028
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-120300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0991
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
828 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Areas affected...southeastern Louisiana (including New Orleans
metro and surrounding areas) and a small part of Mississippi

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 120028Z - 120300Z

Summary...Increasing likelihood for significant flash flood
impacts in New Orleans proper and surrounding areas of
southeastern Louisiana.

Discussion...Over the past 1-2 hours, intense convection has
developed on the northeastern edge of the eye wall of Francine,
which was centered near Houma.  Rain rates have steadily increased
into the 2-3.5 inch/hr range with this activity.  Recent radar
trends indicate that this area of convection will move over the
New Orleans Metro and adjacent areas, where locally
sensitive/urbanized areas exist in addition to potential storm
surge/poor drainage.  Given the ongoing scenario, an increased
likelihood exists for significant, life-threatening impacts from
flash flooding, as extreme rainfall totals fall along the path of
the eye wall in a very short amount of time.  These intense rain
rates should also cross Lake Pontchartrain into portions St.
Tammany Parish and surrounding areas through 0230Z.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-EoWd_UerD-D3FOBu2fZ5D4t2i4R8g88cULQLZPD55dIwChp7Iu9SAzhtRODY6krG49Z=
7GtMvTyG6IOthb_alwd-FVI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   30699010 30678967 30568934 30328917 29908927=20
            29668970 29809051 29889097 30059107 30549081=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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