Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Sep 11 2024 20:45:52

AWUS01 KWNH 112045
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-120244-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0990
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
445 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Areas affected...southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi,
southern Alabama

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 112044Z - 120244Z

Summary...Areas of heavy rainfall continue as Hurricane Francine
approaches land near Morgan City, LA.  Flash flooding remains
likely across much of the Gulf Coast region.  Particular concern
exists across urbanized/sensitive areas in/near Baton Rouge and
New Orleans.

Discussion...As Francine approaches land, broad areas of banded
convection extend near and east of its center across southern
Louisiana, coastal areas of Mississippi/Alabama, and over
north-central Gulf of Mexico waters.  At this time, the heavier
rainfall appears to be tied to 1) banding near the eye wall of
Francine, where 2.5 inch/hr rain rates were recently estimated per
MRMS south of Morgan City and 2) with more scattered convection
over open waters where 1-2 inch/hr rates were noted.  Each of
these regimes are expected to spread inland in tandem with
northeastward progress of Francine through 03Z.  Strong warm
advection on the eastern periphery of Francine will enable
destabilization especially near coastal areas, where 1000-2000
J/kg SBCAPE will become common.  This destabilization and eyewall
proximity should allow for heavier rainfall to overspread most of
the discussion area, with particular concern for populated areas
such as New Orleans, Baton Rouge, and northshore Lake
Pontchartrain.  1+ inch/hr rain rates should expand in coverage
through the afternoon/evening across already saturated ground
conditions with poor drainage/storm surge.  Three-hour FFG
thresholds in the 2.5-3 inch range should be exceeded at times.=20
Local areas of 2-4 inch rainfall totals (with spots of 5 inch
totals) are expected through 03Z.  Flash flooding remains likely,
and significant impacts are possible.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7Kleh1E9MRbjxJ0yMWUECAkOwmIfkd47x7LOzsRvI0Qx-r02qHrdK9Uq3phz6Qx8espU=
6u4zjew-cI1kyjsz1xMRN2E$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   31118915 30978779 30528744 30238748 30108816=20
            29688870 29098906 28898974 29299188 29419256=20
            29819261 30559218 31029094=20

=3D =3D =3D
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