Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Sep 10 2024 08:36:18

ACUS48 KWNS 100836
SWOD48
SPC AC 100834

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Severe potential appears low through the period. Primary concern for
D4/Friday is any lingering tornado threat associated with the
remnants of TC Francine. It is forecast by NHC to drift into the
Mid-South/MS Valley to Lower OH Valley vicinity. Latest guidance
indicates further weakening of low-level wind fields on Friday,
likely becoming inadequate to sustain a synoptically evident TC
tornado threat.

Beyond this time frame, a quiescent pattern for severe is expected
this weekend into early next week. Towards mid-week, majority of
ensemble guidance suggests potential large-scale amplification of an
upper trough into the West. This may yield an increase of
low-probability severe around D8 and beyond over parts of the Great
Plains, where many preceding days of above-normal temps will occur.

...Grams.. 09/10/2024

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