Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Sep 09 2024 19:29:45 ACUS03 KWNS 091929 SWODY3 SPC AC 091928 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST LA AND SOUTHERN MS... ....SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across the central Gulf Coast vicinity on Wednesday, in association with Tropical Cyclone Francine. ....Synopsis... Tropical Cyclone Francine is currently forecast to make landfall sometime later Wednesday afternoon or evening near the LA Gulf Coast, potentially as a hurricane. Meanwhile, a relatively deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across the Northwest into the Great Basin and central/northern Rockies. In response to the this trough, some deepening of surface low pressure is expected from the eastern Great Basin into Montana. ....Central Gulf Coast vicinity... See NHC forecasts and advisories for additional information regarding Francine. Some tornado threat will spread inland as Francine approaches the coast during the day before making landfall by evening. Based on current forecasts/guidance, the most favorable overlap of strengthening low-level shear/SRH and inland intrusion of tropical moisture (with dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s F) is expected across parts of southern LA/MS, where a small Slight Risk has been included. The northern extent of an appreciable tornado threat remains uncertain, with surface-based buoyancy potentially remaining quite limited into parts of central MS Wednesday night, but the Marginal Risk has been expanded based on the expected track of Francine into early Thursday morning. ....Interior Northwest... Large-scale ascent and cooling temperatures aloft attendant to the approaching trough will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across the interior Northwest on Wednesday. Wind profiles will become favorable for organized convection, but moisture will likely remain rather limited, and uncertainty remains regarding whether buoyancy will become sufficient for a severe threat. Locally gusty winds and small hail could accompany the strongest storms. ....Central/northern High Plains... Isolated high-based convection may develop across parts of the central/northern High Plains during the afternoon, to the south of a stationary front that will extend eastward across parts of eastern MT into the Dakotas. While this convection may remain rather disorganized, inverted-v profiles could support localized strong gusts. Near and immediately north of the front, somewhat more favorable moisture and instability may be in place during the afternoon/evening, but capping will tend to limit surface-based development. A few stronger elevated storms will be possible, but potential for any organized severe threat remains uncertain at this time. ...Dean.. 09/09/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .