Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Sep 09 2024 17:31:14

ACUS02 KWNS 091731
SWODY2
SPC AC 091729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
LA GULF COAST...

....SUMMARY...
Some tornado threat associated with Tropical Cyclone Francine may
approach the Louisiana Gulf Coast by early Wednesday morning.

....Synopsis...
Tropical Storm Francine will potentially intensify into a hurricane
as it moves north-northeastward across the western Gulf of Mexico.
Meanwhile, a strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to
dig southeastward into the Pacific Northwest and northern CA.
Diurnal thunderstorms capable of locally gusty winds will be
possible from the eastern Great Basin into parts of the Rockies, and
also across the FL Peninsula. More isolated storms will also be
possible from the central Plains into the parts of the upper
Midwest, which may also be capable of locally gusty winds. Organized
severe-thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low, with the
possible exception of the LA Gulf Coast region late in the period in
association with Francine.

....LA Gulf Coast vicinity...
Refer to NHC forecasts and advisories for more information regarding
Tropical Storm Francine. Based on the current forecast track, the
most favorable environment for low-topped supercells associated with
Francine should remain offshore for most of the forecast period.
However, some outer bands may begin to approach the LA Gulf Coast
prior to 12Z Wednesday morning, accompanied by an increase in
low-level shear/SRH. A small Marginal Risk has been included near
the immediate LA Gulf Coast for the potential of an increasing
tornado threat prior to the end of the forecast period.

...Dean.. 09/09/2024

$$

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