Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Sep 09 2024 00:47:13 ACUS01 KWNS 090047 SWODY1 SPC AC 090045 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight. ....01z Update... Evening water vapor imagery shows a prominent mid-level ridge remains in place over much of the CONUS, with surface high pressure favoring dry and quiescent weather over much of the country. To the east of the ridge, an upper low over the Northeast and eastern Canada is slowly filling. A cold front trailing south of the low has moved mostly offshore, but was supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms in the northern Gulf of Mexico and across parts of FL. Continued offshore flow ahead of the surface high moving slowly south and east should keep much of this activity offshore or confined to the immediate coast through the next 12 hours. Storms should gradually diminish in coverage and intensity through the remainder of the evening. To the west, weak and broader troughing is ongoing over the West Coast with an embedded shortwave perturbation crossing the northern Rockies. Monsoon moisture advection ahead of theses features is supporting scattered thunderstorms across much of the Intermoutnain West, into the northern Rockies and across much of the Desert Southwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms appear likely to persist into this evening as the weak trough shifts slowly eastward, especially across parts of ID and the Great Basin where more clustering has occurred. Storms are predominately high-based in nature, owing to steep low-level lapse rates, hot temperatures and the limited monsoon moisture. This could support an occasional dry downburst with the more robust cores, mainly over parts of southern CA. However, limited deep-layer shear and weak overall buoyancy suggests these storms are unlikely to be meaningfully organized or persistent. Thus, will continue with severe probs less than 5%. Storms should begin to decrease in coverage this evening with the loss of diurnal heating and mid-level drying. Otherwise, the severe risk appears limited across much of the country. ...Lyons.. 09/09/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .