Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Sep 08 2024 16:18:10 ACUS01 KWNS 081618 SWODY1 SPC AC 081616 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ....Synopsis and Discussion... Recent surface observations show a nearly stalled front over north FL. Daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass south of this boundary will likely encourage the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon over the northern and central FL Peninsula. While occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with any downdrafts, the presence of poor mid-level lapse rates should hinder updraft acceleration and overall convective intensity. Even with upper ridging remaining prominent over much of the West, high-based convection may develop this afternoon over the southern/central Rockies, and perhaps into the adjacent High Plains along/near a weak lee surface trough. Limited low-level moisture and generally weak effective bulk shear over these regions will likely preclude an organized severe threat, although strong winds may occur with any convection that can be sustained. Water vapor satellite imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest this morning. This feature will move generally east-northeastward towards the northern Rockies through the period. Isolated thunderstorms may occur across interior portions of the Northwest this afternoon ahead of the shortwave trough. But, rather modest low-level moisture (surface dewpoints generally in the 30s/40s F) should hinder the development of any more than weak instability. Along with only modestly enhanced mid-level flow, the limited instability is expected to keep any severe wind threat with convective downdrafts across eastern WA/OR into ID and northern NV/UT quite sparse. ...Gleason/Halbert.. 09/08/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .