Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Sep 07 2024 19:16:58 ACUS03 KWNS 071916 SWODY3 SPC AC 071915 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Organized severe-thunderstorm potential currently appears low on Monday. ....Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move gradually eastward across the northeast CONUS on Monday. An embedded shortwave is expected to move through the base of the trough across the lower Great Lakes region into the Mid Atlantic/Northeast. A midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move across the northern Rockies/High Plains, with a weaker shortwave potentially moving from the central Plains into the upper Midwest. An area of low pressure initially over the Bay of Campeche may evolve into a tropical cyclone. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the lower Great Lakes, Intermountain West, and potentially into parts of the High Plains, though low-level moisture is expected to remain rather limited. Nocturnal elevated convection may be possible from the northern Plains into the upper Midwest, though this potential remains quite uncertain. ....Lower Great Lakes vicinity... Ascent and cooling temperatures aloft in association with the digging shortwave trough will support diurnal thunderstorm potential from the lower Great Lakes into central/northern NY. Most guidance suggests that buoyancy will remain quite limited, though gusty winds and small hail could accompany any deeper convection. The 07/12Z NAM is notably stronger with both the digging shortwave and destabilization, suggesting a threat for more-organized convection. Confidence in this more aggressive scenario is too low for probabilities at this time. ....Deep South Texas... See NHC forecasts and advisories for more information regarding possible tropical cyclone development in the Bay of Campeche. Uncertainty remains high regarding the details, but guidance generally suggests that the favored northeast quadrant of any developing cyclone will remain offshore of south TX into Tuesday morning, which would limit inland severe potential through the end of the period. ...Dean.. 09/07/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .