Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Sep 07 2024 18:44:18

AWUS01 KWNH 071844
FFGMPD
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-080043-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0984
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
243 PM EDT Sat Sep 07 2024

Areas affected...portions of Arizona, inland southern California,
and southern Nevada

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 071843Z - 080043Z

Summary...Thunderstorms were beginning to develop near the
Flagstaff, AZ area.  Additional slow-moving storms are expected
across the discussion area through the afternoon, with isolated
spots of flash flooding possible.

Discussion...Deep convection was beginning to materialize across
higher terrain of central Arizona (near Flagstaff) over the last
half hour or so.  Additional areas of deep convection were noted
over higher terrain across northern Baja California and the San
Diego County mountains.  The convection was located in an area of
relatively favorable mid-level moisture profiles for convection.=20
Abundant insolation has enabled areas of 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE
amid 0.8-1.4 inch PW values - highest across the Lower Colorado
River Valley.

Over time, continued insolation and a weak mid-level wave centered
over northwestern Arizona will lead to a continued expansion of
convective coverage.  Weak steering flow will allow for a slow
(and at times erratic) drift of convection toward lower elevations
over time.  The overall environment supports areas of 0.5-1.5
inch/hr rain rates especially as convection matures.  These rates
may cause isolated flash flooding especially in low-spots and near
burn scars.  This risk should be primarily diurnally driven, but
will likely extend beyond the 01Z scheduled expiration time of
this MPD.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8CgWzgx8HPYKftrhOZQVD5zmBiN27o30zgsoj1Xsg16JyC6yn0TcEM2XoxM7DzAN9tuY=
gYKdz5MjTX0siJJjg7lud9k$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...HNX...LOX...PSR...SGX...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...CNRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36181329 36051245 35341118 34701048 34121019=20
            33791018 33391047 33321178 33621339 33681505=20
            33431570 32921590 32591598 32591666 33341696=20
            34251762 34681787 35671681 36171540=20

=3D =3D =3D
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