Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Sep 06 2024 17:25:28

ACUS02 KWNS 061725
SWODY2
SPC AC 061723

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Fri Sep 06 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible Saturday over parts of the Northeast
and Mid Atlantic, the central Rockies/High Plains, Florida, and
across parts of the Southwest. No severe weather is expected.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
A deep upper low/trough will move eastward across the Great Lakes
and toward the Northeast, becoming negatively tilted and resulting
in substantial cooling aloft. At the surface, a cold front will
extend south from a low over southern Quebec, roughly from the
Hudson Valley into the Piedmont around 18Z.

While dewpoints in the 60s F will exist ahead of the cold front,
instability will be minimal and generally less than 500 J/kg due to
a shallow/cool boundary layer. In addition, low-level shear will not
be particularly strong, with modest warm advection around 850 mb. As
such, severe weather is not anticipated with this system despite the
strong upper trough.

Elsewhere, northwest flow will exist across the central High Plains
east of the upper ridge, with around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing.
Dewpoints may struggle to reach 50 F, though isolated thunderstorms
are expected with locally gusty winds or small hail over northeast
CO into western NE during the late afternoon.

...Jewell.. 09/06/2024

$$

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