Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Sep 06 2024 08:54:13 ACUS48 KWNS 060853 SWOD48 SPC AC 060852 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ....DISCUSSION... ....Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move from the Northeast into the Atlantic early in the week, as a shortwave ridge moves through the Great Lakes. Another shortwave trough is forecast to move through the north-central U.S. At the surface, a large area of high pressure is forecast to remain over the eastern third of the U.S. This will likely impede moisture return over the southern U.S. through midweek. While thunderstorms will be possible near the Gulf Coast each day, deep-layer shear is forecast to be too weak for severe storms. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop each afternoon in parts of the north-central states, but limited large-scale ascent and relatively weak deep-layer shear should be unfavorable for organized storms. ....Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... Low-level moisture is forecast to return northward into the Arklatex on Thursday, as a shortwave trough moves through the south-central U.S. Thunderstorm development, with some potentially severe, will be possible within the moist airmass from the southern Plains eastward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. There is considerable uncertainty concerning the timing of the shortwave trough and instability. For this reason, the area with the greatest threat is unclear at this time. On Friday, moisture advection is forecast to continue across the central U.S. as the western U.S. upper-level trough approaches the central and northern Plains. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough in the north-central states. Uncertainty on Friday is again substantial due to the relatively wide dispersion among the model solutions. ...Broyles.. 09/06/2024 = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .