Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Sep 06 2024 05:36:26

ACUS01 KWNS 060536
SWODY1
SPC AC 060534

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION...

....SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe storms are possible this afternoon across
much of Ohio and adjacent portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley.

....Ohio Valley Region...

Seasonally strong upper trough is currently located over
northwestern ON/upper MS Valley, digging southeast toward the Great
Lakes. Leading edge of strong 12hr mid-level height falls will
overspread the OH Valley this afternoon as a 500mb speed max
translates across MN/IA into northern IL/IN. Pronounced surface
front will advance into central OH, arcing southwest into western KY
by 18z, and this boundary will serve as the focus for potentially
robust convection this afternoon. Latest model guidance suggests
strong boundary-layer heating ahead of the front which should result
in SBCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg as temperatures rise to near 80F.
Current thinking is scattered storms should readily develop by mid
day as convective temperatures are breached, aided by frontal
forcing. Modest 0-6km bulk shear suggests some potential for
organization, but lapse rates will not be that steep, and this
should limit updraft strength. Even so, some risk for locally
damaging winds, and perhaps some hail will exist with the strongest
storms. The primary window for severe will be between 06/18-07/00z.

...Darrow/Lyons.. 09/06/2024

$$

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