Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Sep 06 2024 01:43:51

AWUS01 KWNH 060143
FFGMPD
NMZ000-060500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0980
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
943 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2024

Areas affected...south-central NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060142Z - 060500Z

Summary...A localized risk of flash flooding will linger for
another few hours before a loss of instability allows convection
to fade. Rainfall totals of an additional inch or two will be
possible through 06Z.

Discussion...Radar imagery and surface observations at 0115Z
showed scattered thunderstorms over central NM, focused along the
leading edge of a combined outflow/cold frontal boundary sweeping
south and southwest across the state. Remaining instability via
the 00Z ABQ sounding and SPC mesoanalysis page from 01Z indicated
MLCAPE up to 500 J/kg with a pocket or two in excess of 500 J/kg
along with precipitable water values between 0.8 and 0.9 inches.
MRMS rainfall estimates continued to indicate high short term
rainfall rates of 0.5 to 1 inch in 15-30 minutes with the
strongest cores.

Thunderstorms are expected to follow the path of the outflow
boundary toward the south and west with continued but isolated
high rainfall rates maintaining a limited flash flood threat
across the region. However, if sufficient instability can survive
as outflow reaches the Sacramento Mountains, a few sensitive burn
scars could be impacted with a quick 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain.
Therefore, while the flash flood threat remains in the short term,
it is expected to remain rather localized and should dissipate
beyond ~04/05Z.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4EbS8H2skWwB_IS-mOmGXLufqPEe7ZPxLsmJ9BA-lvStUuHhL3VhZ_9FGJo-KbKV7aAz=
9rxn-_dBI7BG_Bx-aRloDog$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34610750 34350700 33970627 33830534 33500490=20
            32940488 32660530 32580608 32780706 33230755=20
            33610775 34280790=20

=3D =3D =3D
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