Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Sep 05 2024 20:05:47 AWUS01 KWNH 052005 FFGMPD NMZ000-060200- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0979 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 405 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Areas affected...central/eastern NM Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 052004Z - 060200Z Summary...Localized flash flooding will be possible across central to east-central NM through the evening. Rainfall of 0.5 to 1 inch in 15-30 minutes will be possible along with totals of 1 to 2 inches (isolated 2+ inches possible). Discussion...Radar and visible satellite imagery showed ongoing convection over the southern Rockies as of 1945Z, focused best across the Sangre De Cristo and surrounding mountains of northern NM. Northern portions of NM are seeing the best upslope flow and increase in surface dewpoints relative to yesterday at this time, in the wake of a cold front moving south through the southern High Plains and out ahead of a compact shortwave over CO as seen in water vapor imagery. Moisture anomalies across NM are only weakly anomalous and there was a fair amount of dry air in the middle and upper layers of the atmosphere per the 12Z ABQ sounding and recent layered PW imagery. Despite the dry air aloft, weak instability of 500 up to 1000 J/kg is in place over the southern Rockies into the adjacent High Plains via 19Z SPC mesoanalysis data, supporting high short term rainfall rates. A few Wunderground/Wundermap observations in and around the Sangre De Cristo Mountains have reported rainfall between 0.4 and 0.5 inches in 10 minutes since 18Z. Through 01Z, the shortwave over CO is expected to continue a southward motion, allowing the cold front to push farther south, with upslope flow and instability increasing in its wake over east-central NM. Thunderstorms are likely to follow suit, increasing toward the south over the next few hours with coverage lowering to the north. Mean storm motions are toward the ESE at 10-15 kt but terrain interactions and upstream development will support slower overall movement and training of heavy rain at times, allowing for 1-2 inches of rain (perhaps locally higher). Rainfall rates of 0.5 to 1 inch in 15-30 minutes will pose a flash flood threat across central to east-central NM, with the threat evolving south through the evening as the cold front and upslope flow enhances with time. Burn scar locations will be at greatest risk for flash flooding but nearby low lying and otherwise sensitive terrain will also be at risk. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6uogavaDQ2LMd0kMq7NuIXrYt4rXy3NWqfJdTuDyISQlh5HkbGBtNCtfLw2_-8UseqCh= KJ2t-12ysV1TD-EYXmmTjY0$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 36790530 36470470 36000441 35250432 34040419=20 33130405 32600446 32450514 32450586 32900672=20 34160703 35120716 36190688 36700647 36740592=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .