Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Sep 05 2024 19:23:23

ACUS03 KWNS 051923
SWODY3
SPC AC 051922

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected across the USA on Saturday.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper low will exist over the Great Lakes, and will slowly move
into the Northeast while deepening. Low pressure will shift
northward across western Quebec, with a cold front trailing south
into the Mid Atlantic region. Behind this system, high pressure will
exist into the Plains and MS Valley.

Although winds aloft will increase over the Northeast as the upper
low nears, low-level wind speeds, when combined with expected
instability levels, do not appear to warrant severe probabilities.

....Northeast...
A band of showers and a few thunderstorms is forecast to move east
across NY and PA during the day, and into New England after about
00Z. Forecast soundings ahead of the cold front depict minimal
instability as high temperatures only reach the upper 60s F to lower
70s F in many areas. In addition, wind speeds in the lowest few km
AGL will not be particularly strong either, with less than 30 kt at
850 mb. Therefore, the combination of a relatively shallow/cool
boundary layer, combined with modest wind speeds, and lack of
appreciable instability, all suggest severe weather is unlikely.

...Jewell.. 09/05/2024

$$

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