Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Sep 05 2024 17:19:54

ACUS02 KWNS 051719
SWODY2
SPC AC 051718

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
OHIO AND PARTS OF ADJACENT STATES...

....SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe storms are possible on Friday across much
of Ohio and adjacent portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

....Synopsis...
A large upper trough will deepen on Friday as it moves from the
upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes. The primary speed max will
dive southeastward across MN/IA during the day and round the base of
the trough into IL, IN, OH and toward Lake Erie into Saturday
morning. Meanwhile, modest upper ridging will exist across the West
with weak flow.

At the surface, a cold front will stretch from near Lake Erie
southwestward toward the OH Valley during the afternoon with a
surface low developing from Lake Ontario into far southwest Quebec
late. Otherwise, the pre-frontal trough will be relatively weak
during the day.

....OH and Vicinity...
Daytime heating will lead to steepening lapse rates, with a plume of
60s F dewpoints likely east of the cold front. Forecast soundings
show in excess of 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. While low-level lapse rates will
become steep, most of the cooling aloft will be post frontal, and
not contribute appreciably to destabilization across the warm
sector.

Increasing frontal ascent into the uncapped air mass will lead to
scattered storms after about 18Z, from far western NY into parts of
KY. The most favorable combination of instability and wind profiles
appears to be over OH, with sufficiently long hodographs to support
hail in some of the storms. Cellular storm mode is expected early,
with the undercutting cold front supporting a transition to linear.
As such, marginal hail and then wind gusts will be possible through
about 02Z, when storms are expected to dissipate with the loss of
heating.

...Jewell.. 09/05/2024

$$

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