Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Sep 05 2024 16:25:54 ACUS01 KWNS 051625 SWODY1 SPC AC 051624 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across parts of far south-central Colorado into northern/central New Mexico. ....Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough moving southeastward through the central Rockies, between the upper ridging in place over the western Great Basin and the broad upper troughing across central Canadian and northern Plains/Upper MS Valley. Another shortwave trough exists over the Upper MS Valley. This shortwave trough is forecast to continue progressing eastward through the base broad central Canada/northern Plains trough, moving across the Upper Great Lakes and into eastern Ontario. Recent surface analysis places a surface low associated with this shortwave over Lake Superior, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low through KS and into northeast NM. This front is forecast to progress southward/southeastward as its parent surface low lifts northeastward. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along this frontal boundary, but overall severity should be mitigated by modest buoyancy and vertical shear. Greater thunderstorm coverage and severity is anticipated over the southern Rockies as the previously mentioned central Rockies shortwave trough continues southeastward and promotes thunderstorm development. Lastly, a tropical wave just off the TX Coast is contributing to abundant moisture across much of Gulf Coast, with low 70s dewpoints reaching into much of east TX and northern LA, and upper 70s across FL. Precipitable water values over 2" cover much of this region as well. Heavy rain is the primary threat (as indicated by the latest Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook from WPC), but a few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts are possible from southeast TX and southern/central LA eastward along the Gulf Coast and over the Florida Peninsula. Coverage of these gusts is expected to be sparse and too low to delineate a 5% wind probability area. ....Southern Rockies/southern High Plains... Moderate low-level moisture is anticipated within the post-frontal airmass across the southern Rockies and adjacent southern High Plains this afternoon, characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid 50s across the High Plains and upper 40s across the higher terrain. Even with this modest moisture, the airmass is expected to destabilize, fostered by deep boundary-layer mixing and cool temperatures aloft (i.e. around -10 deg C at 500 mb). Surface easterlies/northeasterlies beneath modest westerlies aloft will contribute to effective bulk shear around 35 kt, which is strong enough for some updraft organization. Isolated hail is possible across the higher terrain with the initially more cellular development. Damaging gusts are expected to be the primary risk thereafter as storms trend towards a more clustered mode and move eastward into the more mixed southern High Plains. ...Mosier/Squitieri.. 09/05/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .