Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Sep 05 2024 08:15:22

ACUS48 KWNS 050815
SWOD48
SPC AC 050813

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0313 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

....DISCUSSION...
A deep upper-level trough initially over the eastern CONUS on
D4/Sunday is forecast to move offshore early next week. In the wake
of this trough and its attendant cold front, a surface ridge is
expected to persist over much of the eastern CONUS through mid week.
This ridge will likely prevent the northward return of richer
low-level moisture for most of the extended-range period, which
should tend to limit organized severe-thunderstorm potential across
much of the CONUS.

There is some potential for the influence of the eastern surface
ridge to wane by D7/Wednesday into D8/Thursday, while some guidance
suggests a mid/upper-level trough will approach the central/northern
High Plains during this time frame. Should this occur, there could
be some increase in severe potential, though predictability remains
rather low at this forecast range.

...Dean.. 09/05/2024

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