Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Sep 05 2024 07:31:20 ACUS03 KWNS 050731 SWODY3 SPC AC 050729 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... A few strong storms are possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Saturday. ....Synopsis... A deep trough is forecast to take on more of a neutral or negative tilt on Saturday, as an embedded mid/upper-level cyclone moves slowly eastward across parts of ON/QC. A surface low initially near the lower Great Lakes may gradually deepen as it moves northeastward, while a trailing cold front will move through parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic through the day and into the evening. Farther south, a gradually deepening frontal wave is forecast to move near the Carolina coast through the day, and then move offshore by evening. To the west, an upper-level ridge is forecast to remain in place across the Southwest, while an upper-level trough moves slowly eastward across northern CA and the Pacific Northwest. ....Parts of the Northeast/Mid Atlantic... Some modest low-level moisture return is possible along/ahead of the front across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, though buoyancy will likely remain meager due to weak midlevel lapse rates, and timing of the front remains somewhat uncertain. If adequate destabilization can occur along/ahead of the front, then increasing low/midlevel flow and large-scale ascent would support potential for somewhat organized convection during the day across parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic, which could pose some damaging-wind potential. Severe probabilities may eventually be needed for parts of the region, if confidence increases regarding frontal timing and development of sufficient instability. ....Central/southern High Plains vicinity... Modest low-level moisture return (dewpoints generally in the low 50s F) beneath relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate destabilization across parts of the central/southern High Plains. Deep-layer shear will become at least marginally supportive of organized storms within a modest northwesterly flow regime. Storm development and coverage (if any) across the High Plains remains uncertain, with large-scale ascent likely to remain subtle at best. Diurnal storm development will also be possible across the higher terrain of the southern/central Rockies, though buoyancy and deep-layer shear will tend to be somewhat weaker compared to areas farther east. ....Coastal NC... Depending on the track of the frontal wave that is forecast to develop Friday night near the coastal Carolinas, rich low-level moisture may spread slightly inland during the morning/afternoon, before the low moves offshore. While some increase in low-level flow is expected as the wave gradually deepens, buoyancy will likely remain quite weak. Any severe potential with the system may be rather limited, unless low-level mass response ends up being stronger than currently forecast. ...Dean.. 09/05/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .