Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Sep 05 2024 05:51:47 ACUS01 KWNS 050551 SWODY1 SPC AC 050550 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts will be possible today across part of northeastern New Mexico. ....Northeastern New Mexico... A shortwave trough will move southward across the central Rockies today. At the surface, a cold front will move southward into the southern High Plains, as a lee trough develops and deepens across northeastern New Mexico. As surface temperatures warm today near the surface trough, a cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop ahead of a band of large-scale ascent. This cluster of storms is expected to expand in size across southern Colorado and move southward into northeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Ahead of the cluster, surface dewpoints in the 50s F will contribute to weak destabilization. MLCAPE is expected to peak in the 500 to 750 J/kg range by mid afternoon. RAP forecast soundings at 21Z in northeastern New Mexico have 0-6 shear in the 25 to 30 knot range, with 0-3 km lapse rates peaking in the 8.5 to 9 C/km range. This should be sufficient for isolated severe wind gusts associated with the stronger multicells. Hail will also be possible within the stronger cores. The wind and hail threat should persist throughout much of the afternoon as the storms gradually move southward from northeastern New Mexico into east-central New Mexico. ...Broyles/Moore.. 09/05/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .