Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Sep 05 2024 01:00:49 ACUS01 KWNS 050100 SWODY1 SPC AC 050058 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail will be possible this evening from parts of the central Rockies northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. ....Central Rockies/Central Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... The latest water vapor imagery shows a positively-tilted upper-level trough over the north-central Rockies, with west-southwesterly mid-level flow over the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is located from eastern Colorado northeastward into southwest Minnesota. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing behind the front from Colorado and Wyoming eastward into the central High Plains. RAP analysis has weak instability in place across the central High Plains and central Rockies, with MLCAPE generally in the 250 to 500 J/kg range. Forecast soundings across this weakly unstable airmass this evening have 0-3 km shear mostly between 25 and 35 knots, with 850-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This environment should be enough to continue a marginal severe threat for a few more hours this evening. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be the primary threats. As the upper-level trough moves eastward this evening, large-scale ascent will overspread parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms are expected to develop within and near a pocket of moderate instability over eastern South Dakota, northeastern Nebraska and southwest Minnesota. These storms could also be associated with a potential for marginally severe wind gusts and hail. The greatest threat should be with cells that develop near the front late this evening, where instability is expected to be the strongest. ...Broyles.. 09/05/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .