Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Sep 04 2024 17:54:32

AWUS01 KWNH 041754
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-042352-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0975
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
153 PM EDT Wed Sep 04 2024

Areas affected...portions of the Gulf Coast from Texas to far
northwest Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041752Z - 042352Z

Summary...A broad axis of scattered thunderstorm activity extended
from near Victoria/Port Lavaca eastward to southern Louisiana and
across adjacent coastal waters.  The storms are in a favorable
environment for areas of one to isolated 3 inch/hr rain rates at
times.  Flash flooding is possible on at least an isolated basis.

Discussion...Broad low-level onshore flow continues to promote
scattered shower/thunderstorm activity across the discussion area.
 Recent radar imagery suggests modest organization into banded
structures especially near Port Lavaca, TX and across areas of
southern Louisiana from Houma to near Lafayette.  The storms are
embedded in relatively weak easterly steering flow, with strong
instability (1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and 2.5+ inch PW values
supporting extremely efficient rain ratesy.  Spots of 1+ inch rain
rates have been observed throughout the morning, and a few areas
of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates have been noted more recently across
southern Louisiana.  High (~3 inch/hr) FFGs are in place across
most of the discussion area (outside of portions of the Texas
coastline near Freeport and Corpus Christi).  Isolated flash flood
potential will exist with this activity in the near term given the
above scenario, with particular concern across sensitive/urbanized
areas.

Over time, the axis of convergence supporting convection will only
slowly drift northward.  Potential exists for multiple rounds of
scattered shower/thunderstorm activity to affect the discussion
area, with the greatest concentration of storms (and attendant
flash flood risk) focused across Texas and Louisiana.  Primarily
diurnally driven storms are expected, with flash flood potential
extending through/beyond 00Z/7pm CDT.  Over time, more pronounced
inland development is expected across central Louisiana due to a
peak in surface-based instability in that area.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!88eecflOTN8QBzEODpW8pvOXKqp_E-Y5V01o_oSVHE-BNds-cDeGfWG0SpMYebn5N6Gj=
u5NHkSEG2hYlaqAyf175ggc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   31589311 31439221 30609096 30558993 30868891=20
            30978765 30768707 30398699 29948785 29698879=20
            29228908 28978981 29109103 29329199 29629314=20
            29399442 28409596 27569731 28219736 29009663=20
            30079488 31099379=20

=3D =3D =3D
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