Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Sep 04 2024 05:54:08 ACUS02 KWNS 040554 SWODY2 SPC AC 040552 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... The threat for organized severe thunderstorms currently appears low on Thursday, but a few strong storms cannot be ruled out across parts of the upper Midwest, New Mexico, and south-central Colorado. ....Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify and move southeastward across the Canadian Prairies into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Thursday. To the southwest of this amplifying trough, a weakening shortwave is forecast to move southeastward across the central/southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend southwestward from the Great Lakes into parts of the Midwest and central/southern Plains during the afternoon. ....Parts of the upper Midwest... Elevated convection will likely be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of WI and western upper MI. While this convection will likely tend to weaken with time, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out early in the period. As the cold front moves south-southeastward through the day, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible in the vicinity of the frontal zone. Large-scale forcing and deep-layer flow are forecast to be somewhat stronger near the upper Midwest portion of the front, in response to the amplifying upper-level trough. Relatively substantial spread persists among guidance regarding the extent of moistening/destabilization, though in general, buoyancy is expected to remain relatively modest, rendering any organized-severe potential uncertain. With relatively limited low-level moisture, pockets of rather strong heating/mixing could develop, which may support localized gusty winds with any stronger storms. If stronger destabilization does evolve during the afternoon, then isolated hail cannot be ruled out. At this time, confidence in an organized severe threat remains too low for probabilities. ....South-central CO into NM... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from south-central CO into NM, as the weakening shortwave trough moves southeastward across the region during the afternoon/evening. Effective shear will become modestly supportive of organized convection (generally 25-30 kt), but buoyancy may remain rather weak. If adequate instability can be realized, then some threat for localized hail and strong/severe gusts could accompany the strongest storms. ...Dean.. 09/04/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .