Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Sep 04 2024 05:36:08

ACUS01 KWNS 040536
SWODY1
SPC AC 040534

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms, capable of severe wind gusts and hail, will
be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central
and northern Rockies, and from the central and northern Plains into
the upper Mississippi Valley.

....North-central Rockies/Central and Northern Plains/Upper
Mississippi Valley...
A positively-tilted upper-level trough will move across the northern
High Plains and north-central Rockies today. An associated cold
front will move across the northern Plains and central High Plains.
As surface temperatures warm, isolated to scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop in the higher terrain of the north-central
Rockies in the post-frontal airmass. Additional storms are expected
to form along and near the front across parts of the northern
Plains. The storms will move east and southward across the region,
affecting the central Plains and upper Mississippi during the mid to
late evening. A chance for storms could persist into the overnight.

Model forecasts suggest that the strongest instability will be
located over the eastern Dakotas today, where the development of
moderate instability will be possible. Weak instability is forecast
to develop ahead of the front from the central Rockies and central
High Plains northward into the post-frontal airmass as far north as
eastern Montana. Due to the approaching upper-level trough, moderate
deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates are forecast across
much of the north-central U.S. The environment should be sufficient
for an isolated severe threat during the afternoon and evening,
especially in areas that sufficiently destabilize. Severe wind gusts
and hail will be possible with the stronger multicells. An isolated
supercell threat could develop in areas where parameters become most
favorable, but location uncertainty is considerable.

...Broyles/Moore.. 09/04/2024

$$

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