Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Sep 04 2024 00:43:06

ACUS01 KWNS 040043
SWODY1
SPC AC 040041

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms, associated with marginally severe wind
gusts, will be possible this evening across parts of the central and
northern Rockies into the northern High Plains.

....Central and Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains...
A positively-tilted upper-level trough is evident on water vapor
imagery over the northern Rockies, with southwest mid-level flow
from the Intermountain West into the northern High Plains. A weakly
unstable airmass is located ahead of the trough from Wyoming
northward into southern and central Montana, with scattered
thunderstorms ongoing near the instability axis. RAP forecast
soundings this evening from west of Billings, Montana southward to
near Jackson, Wyoming have MLCAPE near 500 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around
40 knots and 700-500 mb lapse near 8 C/km. This environment should
continue to support an isolated severe threat. Although instability
is the limiting factor, the threat could continue for a few more
hours this evening before surface temperatures cool significantly.
The primary threat will be for marginally severe wind gusts. Hail
will be possible from south-central Montana into northwest Wyoming,
where large-scale ascent appears to be maximized ahead of the
approaching upper-level trough. The severe threat could impact areas
further to the east in the northern High Plains later this evening.

...Broyles.. 09/04/2024

$$

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