Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Sep 03 2024 23:58:15

AWUS01 KWNH 032358
FFGMPD
TXZ000-040540-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0970
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
757 PM EDT Tue Sep 03 2024

Areas affected...portions of central to southwestern TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 032356Z - 040540Z

Summary...Localized to widely scattered areas of flash flooding
are expected to continue over the next couple of hours across
central to southwestern TX. However, lowering instability should
allow for decreasing coverage and intensity of
showers/thunderstorms in the 03-06Z time frame.

Discussion...After a brief lull just prior to 21Z, thunderstorms
have picked back up in coverage and intensity over portions of
central and southwestern TX. Large scale lift ahead of a mid-upper
level trough over western TX remained along with precipitable
water values of roughly 2.0 to 2.3 inches and lingering MLCAPE of
500-1500 J/kg (via 23Z SPC mesoanalysis data). The recent uptick
appears to be tied to a minor increase in the mean low level
easterly flow and increased directional convergence near and east
of the Hill Country in the vicinity of 925 mb.

Slow storm motions within this environment will continue to be
capable of generating 1-3 in/hr rainfall rates, overlapping with
saturated soils over portions of the region. However, as surface
temperatures begin to cool with the loss of diurnal heating and
some drying occurs in the 850-700 mb layer, MLCAPE is likely to
lower significantly by 06Z. The 850-700 mb drying is expected to
due to easterly winds in that layer overlapping with a relative
lull in moisture observed in the 850-700 mb layer on layered PW
imagery over the LA and upper TX coast. Flash flooding will remain
likely over the next 2-3 hours over portions of central to
southwestern TX given sensitive ground conditions, but rainfall
coverage and intensity is expected to diminish in the 03-06Z time
frame, lowering the flash flood threat.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5UpFwIXZpNqQOJmTytUL88iFwa_MEA7w4ulqRc2Z1-5ijbL_lDyQCHyS9jyBuPwYuYdR=
0Gz5veurfrYe7uz6xmbfex8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   31339795 31109701 30649696 30279724 29389785=20
            28259850 27799962 28090031 28740065 29600064=20
            30330040 31049957=20

=3D =3D =3D
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