Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Sep 03 2024 18:14:13

AWUS01 KWNH 031814
FFGMPD
TXZ000-040012-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0969
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
213 PM EDT Tue Sep 03 2024

Areas affected...much of Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 031812Z - 040012Z

Summary...Scattered instances of flash flooding should continue
through at least 00Z/7pm CDT this evening.

Discussion...Ascent supporting heavy rainfall continues to occur
as a result of 1) a nearly stationary mid-level wave centered over
west Texas, 2) a weak low-level trough extending from near Del Rio
northward through west-central Texas near Abilene, 3) continued
westward advection of moisture/instability (~1000 J/kg MLCAPE and
2-2.6 inch PW values).  The convergence/abundant moisture
continues to focus deep convective structures generally from near
Del Rio northward through Abilene, including areas near San Angelo
that have experienced numerous impacts over the past 2-4 hours.=20
Spots of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates have been noted per MRMS that have
exceeded local FFG thresholds (near 0 in some spots) by a factor
of 3-5+.  Lastly, slow cell motions were also contributing to
heavier rain rates at times.

The slow evolution of the overall scenario will result in
continued instances of flash flooding through at least 00Z/7pm CDT
this evening.  Models suggest that most convection will be
diurnally driven, with continued spots of heavier rainfall
expected through at least sunset/01Z tonight and only a very slow
downtick in convective thereafter.  Breaks in the clouds (and
resultant insolation should also allow for a gradual increase in
convective development across central Texas (near Austin/San
Antonio and vicinity) as well.  Local FFGs range from near 0-1
inch in many areas (especially in the western half of the
discussion area) and will be readily exceeded even with light
rainfall through the evening.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7tyUgN568nsL0NCRLJ4lrVzN35ZYRFPZIDnmGimmcsHoRn-4YeFPXzK0E2n0akuqgi5K=
-hgbK9NOXpJXRWaSwDOzaSo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   33729966 33629858 33369762 32849733 32049758=20
            31149790 30339761 29809756 29019782 27549827=20
            26909867 27639981 29600120 30710167 30820172=20
            32240178 32960189 33600136 33700066=20

=3D =3D =3D
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