Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Sep 03 2024 07:24:29

ACUS03 KWNS 030724
SWODY3
SPC AC 030723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The threat for organized severe thunderstorms currently appears low
on Thursday.

....Synopsis...
An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify over the
central/northern Great Plains into parts of the upper Midwest/Great
Lakes on Thursday. The trailing portion of the trough, associated
with a weakening embedded shortwave, is forecast to move into the
south-central High Plains during the day. A cold front is expected
to continue moving southeastward across parts of the upper Midwest
into the central/southern Plains.

....South-central Plains into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
Guidance continues to vary regarding both timing of the front and
the magnitude of destabilization in its vicinity. Richer low-level
moisture will remain confined near the Gulf Coast, but dewpoints
generally in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s F will support at least
modest destabilization during the afternoon. Thunderstorm
development will be possible near the front, and also potentially
within a relatively moist post-frontal regime, with stronger drying
expected to lag the initial wind shift.

Deep-layer flow and midlevel lapse rates are forecast to be
relatively weak across the region where storm development is
currently expected. If pockets of greater diurnal
heating/destabilization can develop, and/or if somewhat stronger
midlevel flow (associated with the amplifying upper trough) can
impinge on areas of storm development, then some severe threat could
evolve during the afternoon and evening. Confidence is currently too
low to include probabilities.

...Dean.. 09/03/2024

$$

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