Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Sep 03 2024 04:47:29 AWUS01 KWNH 030447 FFGMPD TXZ000-031045- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0966 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1246 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2024 Areas affected...Southern to Middle Texas Coastal Plain... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 030445Z - 031045Z SUMMARY...Strengthening onshore flow/convergence to develop thunderstorms within a very slow steering environment potentially resulting in repeating/training or even stationary cells. Very deep moist warm cloud environment will allow for highly efficient (2-3"/hr) rates and possible rapid inundation flooding. DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite denote a weak interaction of mid to upper-level vorticity centers across southern Texas though influence is breaking with a result that southern stream TUTT cell has become stationary over the northwest Gulf along Padre Island.=20 A weak outflow channel (25-30kts) at 3H is noted across SE TX to support broader scale ascent and tighten the wave at the same time. As such, low level wind response has been increasing across the western Gulf with 15-20kts of sfc to boundary layer easterly flow along and south of the Upper to Middle Texas coast, though some veering along the western Gulf coast is starting to increase some directional convergence at the same time along the northeast quadrant of the surface to 700mb low that remains fairly stationary near the Kenedy county coast. CIRA LPW shows bulk of overall 2.5-2.7" total PWats are with 1.0-1.25" maximized through this convergence zone as well in proximity to Corpus Christi Bay. Mid 80s temps with 00z RAOB from CRP suggest very high, unstable environment as lapse rates while moist are moderately steep for such a moisture rich environment with CAPEs over 3500 J/kg; so very strong updrafts will support rapid flux of those high moisture values (2-2.25") below 600mb or the 15-16kFt for intense loading of the warm cloud to support 2-3"/hr rates with perhaps even an isolated 4"/hr rate possible...peaking near 09z. While low level shear will likely reduce duration of the updraft; solid onshore flow with the aforementioned speed/frictional convergence should help to redevelop/back-build cells resulting in moderate durations to support focused/localized totals of 3-5" along the coastal zone. HREF probability are 60% across the coastal zone from Kenedy to S Refugio county with maximum over 80% for 3" with probability of 5" over 50%; through 12z. While FFG values are so naturally high, proximity to urban centers are likely to induce rapid inundation flooding. Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8_I6vCxF0l4KVPY1L6Qc6XQlF42bELB5LSddhsPVzIWmNx50dyUQvtu0YfHNni4fF8BX= a2-XfZgG0tT4E7JTt8hjqlg$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP... ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 28399712 28389673 28139668 27799703 27539720=20 27099733 26609725 26549738 26689767 26959790=20 27269811 27639826 28129792=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .