Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Sep 03 2024 00:43:56

ACUS01 KWNS 030043
SWODY1
SPC AC 030042

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 PM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024

Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN OREGON...SOUTHEASTERN
WASHINGTON...CENTRAL IDAHO AND ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA...

....SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong to severe wind gusts remain possible near
lingering thunderstorm activity across parts of the northern
Intermountain Region through this evening.

....01Z Update...
Lower/mid-tropospheric subsidence and drying are probably tending to
suppress ongoing scattered thunderstorm development across the Great
Basin into adjacent northern Intermountain Region.  However, widely
scattered stronger thunderstorm development remains possible into
this evening, within favorable large-scale forcing for ascent in the
exit region of a vigorous upper jet streak (including 70+ kt around
300 mb) nosing north-northeastward through eastern Oregon, and in
the downstream lower/mid-level warm advection regime overspreading
central Idaho.  Even within this regime, higher precipitable water
on the order of .7-.8 inches appears to be supporting only weak CAPE
(e.g. little more than 100 J/kg of mixed-layer CAPE in the 03/00Z
sounding from Boise, ID), and this is limiting the strength of the
updrafts and associated precipitation, which in turn is limiting the
strength of downdraft potential despite being rooted above a warm
and deeply mixed boundary layer.  The potential for stronger gusts,
aided by downward mixing of higher momentum from aloft, seems likely
to remain generally focused across the higher elevations of north
central and northeastern Oregon into the mountains of central Idaho,
before convection weakens later this evening.

...Kerr.. 09/03/2024

$$

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