Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Sep 02 2024 19:52:26

ACUS01 KWNS 021952
SWODY1
SPC AC 021950

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND THE NORTHWEST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin
and parts of the interior Pacific Northwest may be capable of
occasional strong to severe wind gusts this afternoon and evening.

....20Z Update...
Minor adjustments were made to the general thunderstorm area to
account for current observed trends. The remainder of the forecast
is unchanged. See the previous discussion for additional details.

...Wendt.. 09/02/2024

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024/

....Interior Pacific Northwest into the Northern Great
Basin/Rockies...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a closed low near the
northern CA/southern OR coast.  This upper feature will move east
through OR and be situated along the OR/ID border by daybreak
Tuesday.  A belt of stronger flow (30-50 kt 500-mb winds) will move
through the base of the larger-scale mid-level trough and overspread
northern NV into southwestern ID and eastern OR this afternoon into
the early evening.  Large-scale ascent associated with the upper
disturbance and the development of weak buoyancy (mainly via
heating), will facilitate the development of isolated to scattered
high-based thunderstorms beginning later this afternoon and
persisting into the evening.  Forecast soundings show large surface
temperature-dewpoint spreads (50 degrees F) with 9+ degrees C lapse
rates into the mid levels and a dry sub-cloud layer.  Evaporative
cooling of the more intense downdrafts will probably yield a risk
for isolated 60-70 mph gusts before weakening later this evening.

$$

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