Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Sep 02 2024 19:07:22 AWUS01 KWNH 021907 FFGMPD TXZ000-NMZ000-030105- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0964 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 306 PM EDT Mon Sep 02 2024 Areas affected...west-central to western TX and far southeastern Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 021905Z - 030105Z SUMMARY...Repeating and short term training of showers and thunderstorms will continue a scattered flash flood threat for portions of west-central to western TX into far southeastern NM. Peak rainfall rates between 1-2 in/hr and additional localized totals of 2 to 4 inches (locally higher) are expected through 01Z. DISCUSSION...Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms were present across west-central TX into southeastern NM as seen on 19Z mosaic radar imagery with embedded pockets of higher reflectivity and training echoes. MRMS has shown peak hourly rainfall between 1-2 inches where training was observed and recent totals since 16Z in the Odessa metro are in the 2-3 inch range. Anomalous precipitable water values (2 to 3 standard deviations above the mean) and sufficient MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg (despite widespread cloud cover) have been enough to support the locally higher rates. Lift has been augmented by low level upslope easterly to northeasterly flow and right-entrance lift associated with a 50-70 kt upper level jet max over the OK and northern TX panhandle regions. More specifically, a zone of low level convergence in the 0-2 km AGL layer has helped to focus much of the higher intensity rainfall from the southeastern corner of NM, eastward toward Abilene and the I-20 corridor of west-central TX. Short term forecasts from the RAP support a realignment of the low level convergence axis toward the south and southeast as winds to the north back to a more northeasterly direction through 00Z. While the convergence is not forecast to be as focused as earlier this morning, some thinning of cloud cover has been noted in visible imagery which may help to locally increase instability across the Pecos Valley into the western Edwards Plateau. Expectations are for thunderstorms to continue over the next 3-6 hours with the heaviest rainfall rates shifting more to the south and east of their current placement near/north of the Midland-Odessa metro. An additional 2-4 inches (locally higher) can be expected through 01Z which is likely to result in scattered areas of flash flooding, especially considering wet antecedent conditions from the Pecos River Valley into western portions of the Edwards Plateau. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6VLc0NZSjEZy8z_d-IwwMWdVH4bJ6rxWRo5t-tg80MUxdJP-Q2b-vWa8uvOGelKcYloW= RE-vPWsDyjuZC4Fr8viKgBU$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...LUB...MAF...SJT... ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 33390050 33219902 32439792 30949770 29609840=20 29440031 30380221 31700319 32880337 33190205=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .