Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Sep 02 2024 17:29:28

ACUS02 KWNS 021729
SWODY2
SPC AC 021727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered strong storms with isolated severe may produce damaging
wind gusts and marginal hail from the northern Intermountain region
eastward into the northern High Plains, and southward into Utah.

....Synopsis...
On Tuesday, an upper trough will weaken as it moves from the
Northwest into the northern Rockies, providing cooling aloft and
increased mid and high level flow. To the east, a large upper trough
will exit the northeastern states, with height rises over the
north-central CONUS.

At the surface, a weak cold front will move across the eastern Great
Basin, ID, western WY and southwest MT by early afternoon,
increasing lift/convergence.

Elsewhere, a moist air mass will remain from TX eastward across the
Gulf Coast, with scattered non-severe storms likely.

....Eastern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies...
As heating accelerates and cooler temperatures overspread the
region, steep lapse rates will yield a large area of thunderstorms,
developing relatively early in the afternoon, from much of UT into
southwest MT. The strongest instability with 500 to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE
will be roughly from far northern UT into MT, where temperatures
aloft will be coolest. Deep-layer effective shear will increase to
around 40 kt, especially across ID, MT, and northwest WY, which will
aid cellular storm mode and hail potential to around 1.00" in
diameter. Otherwise, scattered storms across the entire area will
produce outflows, with progressive clusters of storms producing
strong to locally severe gusts. A few storms may make it as far east
as western SD by late evening, with generally decreasing intensity
after sunset.

...Jewell.. 09/02/2024

$$

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