Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Sep 02 2024 15:13:19 AWUS01 KWNH 021513 FFGMPD TXZ000-022015- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0962 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1112 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2024 Areas affected...mid to upper TX coast Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 021511Z - 022015Z Summary...Narrow training axes of heavy rain will be capable of 1 to 2 inches of rain in 15 to 30 minutes along with a focused area of flash flooding along the middle to upper TX coast over the next 3-6 hours. Additional totals over 4 inches will be possible on an isolated basis. Discussion...A narrow band of thunderstorms has set up across Galveston Island, resulting in 3-4 inch totals since midnight according to the Wunderground/Wundermap network. Observed rainfall rates have been very efficient near 1 inch in 15 minutes since 14Z while the convective band has remained nearly stationary. The environment as seen on the 14Z SPC mesoanalysis showed precipitable water values near 2.5 inches along with a gradient in MLCAPE along the middle and upper TX coast with 1500+ J/kg offshore and less than 1000 J/kg 30-50 miles inland. A zone from Galveston Island to just west/southwest of Galveston Bay appeared to be in a favorable setup with weak easterly convergence and confluence focusing in the vicinity of the coast and near a subtle surface trough analyzed along the coast. Little change is anticipated to the overall kinematic pattern through the early afternoon for the middle to upper TX coast as low level easterly winds of 15 to 25+ kt should remain. The region along and southwest of Galveston Bay is expected to support a localized weak but sufficient low level convergence/confluence max which will help support east to west areas of training. The warm Gulf waters and cloud cover just inland may help to maintain a gradient in CAPE for at least another few hours, with frictional convergence possibly aiding with ascent. 1-2 inches of rain in 15-30 minutes and localized additional totals over 4 inches will be possible through 20Z along with localized flash flooding. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!79gIIWnw4aWJDEhVAjnLLh9ooCHDXfaHgJAoOaQDUPlLFMHK3077xaoeJSUXOKd0O-Bt= UklB6UNEdwntS_c8m8Aw7Ao$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX... ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 29679510 29479438 28969461 28559520 28579593=20 29229622 29669569=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .