Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Sep 02 2024 12:40:23

ACUS01 KWNS 021240
SWODY1
SPC AC 021238

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN/ROCKIES...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin
and parts of the interior Pacific Northwest may be capable of
occasional strong to severe wind gusts this afternoon and evening.

....Interior Pacific Northwest into the Northern Great
Basin/Rockies...
A closed upper low approaching the northern CA and OR Coast will
continue eastward today across the Pacific Northwest and northern
Great Basin. Associated 35-50 kt mid-level south-southwesterlies
will overspread these regions through the afternoon and evening.
Large-scale ascent attendant to the upper low has already encouraged
weak, elevated convection this morning across pats of eastern OR and
vicinity. Current expectations are for additional showers and
thunderstorms to develop later this afternoon as daytime heating
occurs, mainly across parts of central/eastern OR into ID and
northern NV/northwest UT. This convection will likely be rather
high-based (LCLs around 3-4 km AGL), as latest surface observations
and area 12Z soundings show very limited low-level moisture, and
total PWAT values generally 0.5-0.7 inches. Even with rather weak
buoyancy forecast across much of this area, a deeply mixed boundary
layer should encourage efficient evaporative cooling of convective
downdrafts. An isolated risk for strong/gusty winds approaching and
occasionally exceeding severe levels remains apparent with this
high-based convection as it spreads generally north-northeastward
through the afternoon/evening before eventually weakening.

...Gleason/Leitman.. 09/02/2024

$$

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