Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Sep 02 2024 05:42:51 ACUS01 KWNS 020542 SWODY1 SPC AC 020541 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO WESTERN IDAHO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NEVADA AND OREGON... ....SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest may be capable of strong to severe wind gusts this afternoon and evening. ....Synopsis... Recent water-vapor imagery depicts a dominant upper ridge centered over the central CONUS. Flanking the ridge is a departing upper trough across the lower Great Lakes/Northeast and a more compact shortwave trough off the northern California coast. This upper-air regime will largely remain intact for the next 24 hours as the Northeast upper wave continues to move into the western Atlantic and the CA shortwave migrates towards the northern Rockies. At the surface, a slowing cold front draped from the Northeast into the southern Plains will continue to meander south through the day as a surface high builds over the Midwest. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible along this front and in the vicinity of a weak mid-level disturbance over western TX; however, weak flow aloft will hinder the potential for organized convection. Across the West, thunderstorms, including a few strong to severe storms, are expected ahead of the upper trough as it moves onshore over the next 24 hours. ....Nevada into eastern Oregon and Idaho... A modest plume of monsoonal moisture has been tracked from southern AZ into northern NV/eastern OR over the past few days, and has resulted in multiple rounds of thunderstorms across the Great Basin despite very limited low-level moisture and only modestly cool mid-level temperatures. These conditions were well-sampled by the 00 UTC MFR sounding, which depicts around 250 J/kg MLCAPE atop a very deep, dry boundary layer. This profile will be typical this afternoon across the region as ascent associated with the approaching wave overspreads the northern Great Basin/Pacific Northwest. Despite minimal buoyancy, LCL heights between 3-4 km will foster ample evaporative cooling of convective downdrafts that will support strong downburst winds. Increasing flow throughout the column will improve wind shear within the CAPE-bearing layer, promoting better storm longevity and organization (and hence a higher potential for producing strong/severe wind gusts) compared to previous days. Recent CAM solutions also hint at this potential with several HREF members showing isolated swaths of severe winds across northern NV into central and western ID and eastern OR. ...Moore/Kerr.. 09/02/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .