Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Sep 02 2024 00:43:48 ACUS01 KWNS 020043 SWODY1 SPC AC 020042 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue into the late evening and overnight hours from the Mid-Atlantic region into the southern CONUS, Four Corners region, and Pacific Northwest. ....Summary... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to persist into the early morning hours across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, but the overall severe threat appears sufficiently low to remove risk probabilities. ....Mid-Atlantic... Thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic region have shown signs of steady weakening over the past hour based on regional reflectivity imagery, MRMS echo-top heights, and cloud-top temperatures. 00 UTC soundings along the East Coast, and downstream from ongoing multicell clusters, sampled around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE with around 20 knots of mid-level flow. A sporadic strong updraft or two will remain possible this evening along the outflow boundaries of ongoing convection given these environmental conditions. However, the onset of nocturnal cooling will continue to modulate mixed-layer buoyancy (with an attendance increase in inhibition), which should maintain the overall weakening trend. Latest CAM solutions support this scenario with increasingly sparse thunderstorm coverage heading into the early morning hours. Consequently, the overall severe potential appears sufficiently low to warrant removing risk probabilities. ...Moore.. 09/02/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .