Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Sep 01 2024 19:56:46

ACUS01 KWNS 011956
SWODY1
SPC AC 011955

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024

Valid 012000Z - 021200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
UPSTATE NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

....SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated
damaging winds may still occur this afternoon across parts of the
southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New
England.

....20Z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track, with only slight changes
made to the thunder line to reflect the latest guidance consensus
and observations.

...Squitieri.. 09/01/2024

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024/

....Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New
England...
Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage this afternoon
along/south of a diffuse front that extends from the Mid-South/lower
OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Late morning visible satellite
imagery shows substantial cloud cover in the vicinity of the
boundary. Nevertheless, daytime heating of a moist low-level air
mass should allow at least weak/pockets of moderate instability to
develop by early to mid afternoon along and south/east of the front.

Modest ascent with an upper trough over eastern Canada and adjacent
Great Lakes/Northeast U.S., in combination with orographic ascent,
will likely contribute to thunderstorm development through the
afternoon and early evening.  Mid-level flow and related deep-layer
shear will remain fairly modest, especially with southward extent
across the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and southern
Appalachians. Mid-level flow should still prove sufficient to
support modest thunderstorm organization.  Multiple loosely
organized multicell clusters may eventually develop and consolidate
by late afternoon and early evening, posing some threat for isolated
strong to damaging winds while moving generally eastward.  The
greatest concentration of thunderstorms should exist across parts of
southern VA into NC and upstate SC where greater instability (MLCAPE
on the order of 2000-2500 J/kg) is forecast this afternoon.

....Western/Northern New York into Northern New England...
The upper-level trough and associated surface cold front will move
east today across Ontario/Quebec provinces and Northeast U.S., with
weak surface-based instability possibly developing in advance of the
front.  This may result in a narrow, low-topped line of convection
(possibly with little lightning) moving east and accompanied by some
risk for strong/locally damaging gusts.

$$

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