Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Sep 01 2024 17:12:45

ACUS02 KWNS 011712
SWODY2
SPC AC 011711

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1211 PM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Minimal severe risk will exist across the USA on Monday, with
thunderstorms most prevalent across parts of the Southeast and from
the Great Basin into parts of the Northwest.

....Great Basin into eastern OR into ID...
A compact upper low is forecast to move across northern CA and into
central OR on Monday, while mid and high level winds increase ahead
of it. Cooling aloft along with surface heating will result in very
steep lapse rates over much of the area, with -10 C at 500 mb as far
south as central NV. A surface trough will develop over eastern
WA/OR into western ID and northern NV, providing a focus for
scattered late-day storms.

Forecast soundings indicate inverted-v profiles, with minimal
overall CAPE values of a few hundred J/kg. This will support gusty
outflow winds with the strongest storms, however, it is unclear
whether enough downdraft material will be present to produce severe
gusts. In addition, mean winds in the lowest few km will remain
relatively weak while the stronger winds remain at or above 500 mb.
That said, an isolated gust over 50 kt cannot be ruled out, and low
severe wind probabilities may be considered in later outlooks as
confidence increases.

....Southeast...
A large upper trough will progress across the northeastern States on
Monday, with weak but cyclonic flow aloft extending into the
Southeast. Minimal cooling aloft will occur, while the air mass
remains moist. High pressure north of the region will result in
northerly winds which will tend to shunt the 70s F dewpoints toward
the coastal Carolinas, while providing minimal convergence. Daytime
heating should then result in scattered thunderstorms from parts of
GA across SC and toward coastal NC, but weak shear and poor lapse
rates suggest little severe risk.

...Jewell.. 09/01/2024

$$

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