Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Sep 01 2024 16:26:44 ACUS01 KWNS 011626 SWODY1 SPC AC 011625 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ....SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated damaging winds may occur this afternoon across parts of the southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. ....Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England... Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage this afternoon along/south of a diffuse front that extends from the Mid-South/lower OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Late morning visible satellite imagery shows substantial cloud cover in the vicinity of the boundary. Nevertheless, daytime heating of a moist low-level air mass should allow at least weak/pockets of moderate instability to develop by early to mid afternoon along and south/east of the front. Modest ascent with an upper trough over eastern Canada and adjacent Great Lakes/Northeast U.S., in combination with orographic ascent, will likely contribute to thunderstorm development through the afternoon and early evening. Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will remain fairly modest, especially with southward extent across the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and southern Appalachians. Mid-level flow should still prove sufficient to support modest thunderstorm organization. Multiple loosely organized multicell clusters may eventually develop and consolidate by late afternoon and early evening, posing some threat for isolated strong to damaging winds while moving generally eastward. The greatest concentration of thunderstorms should exist across parts of southern VA into NC and upstate SC where greater instability (MLCAPE on the order of 2000-2500 J/kg) is forecast this afternoon. ....Western/Northern New York into Northern New England... The upper-level trough and associated surface cold front will move east today across Ontario/Quebec provinces and Northeast U.S., with weak surface-based instability possibly developing in advance of the front. This may result in a narrow, low-topped line of convection (possibly with little lightning) moving east and accompanied by some risk for strong/locally damaging gusts. ...Bunting/Bentley.. 09/01/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .