Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Sep 01 2024 09:43:30

AWUS01 KWNH 010943
FFGMPD
TXZ000-011500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0959
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
542 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2024

Areas affected...Upper Texas Coast...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 010945Z - 011500Z

SUMMARY...Training band of efficient warm cloud tropical showers
to produce 2-3"/hr rates with potential for focused 3-5" totals
resulting in possible rapid inundation flooding through early
daybreak in proximity to Galveston Bay.

DISCUSSION...Pesky stationary surface to 700mb low remains just
offshore south-southwest to southwest of Galveston Bay.  Core of
low level moisture resides in all quadrants with exception of the
southwest with Sfc to 850mb values over 1.1" continuing to near
..75" through to 700mb, resulting in over 2.25-2.5" values through
depth but loaded in the lowest layers, well below freezing levels
to support efficient warm cloud tropical rainfall processes.=20
Tropical profile with diurnal surface heat release off the ocean
has added that surface temp to support 2000 J/kg of skinny CAPE
profiles for convection.  Low level flow is a tad weaker than
yesterday at 5-10kts through depth but solid directional
convergence will support low level moisture loading to support
2-3"/hr rates.  Local observations support that with 1" totals
occurring in sites along Galveston Bay in less than 20-30 minutes.


Given depth of unidirectional/confluent flow cell motions remain
favorable for the northeast quadrant band to allow for training in
proximity to Galveston Bay for a few more hours with favorable
upstream inflow nearly equalizing in the near term to support
training before converging offshore with time or through any
eventual cold pool generation after a few hours.   As such, spots
of 3-5" are possible through 15z, which may result in rapid
inundation flooding, especially if cells near urban areas like
Galveston Island or west and north of the Bay itself.  Still, with
potential for back-building offshore, confidence does not remain
high enough for extreme totals to designate a likely
categorization potential and will remain possible at this time.

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-ABUfKncMyUNplzLjDngoxcq2RILEsmbBvWCWsM-CwoPsrlHSur1LUYpqgH5TZGm3BQl=
5agNRhPAWLmo0B5R-bLnMTc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   30169483 29989438 29659404 29569409 29229485=20
            29069513 29089535 29359544 29809540 30059521=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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