Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Sep 01 2024 07:20:41

ACUS03 KWNS 010720
SWODY3
SPC AC 010719

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe weather risk should remain local/limited at best on Tuesday.

....Discussion...
As a long-wave upper trough gradually vacates the northeastern U.S.
Tuesday, an upstream short-wave trough is forecast to move slowly
eastward across the northern Intermountain region.

At the surface, a baroclinic zone should linger in the vicinity of
the Gulf Coast through the period, while farther north, a cold front
is forecast to emerge into the north-central states through the
second half of the period, in tandem with the advance of the western
U.S. upper system.

As this upper system and associated front cross the northern
Intermountain region Tuesday, weak destabilization is expected to
support showers and isolated thunderstorms.  Though CAPE will remain
quite limited, a dry/mixed boundary layer may support locally strong
wind gusts with a couple of the stronger storms.  At this time
however, risk appears too isolated to warrant MRGL risk inclusion.

Elsewhere, showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected across
portions of the south-central and southeastern states, near the
remnant front.  However, weak shear suggests storms will remain
disorganized and generally sub-severe through the period.

...Goss.. 09/01/2024

$$

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