Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Sep 01 2024 00:39:38

ACUS01 KWNS 010039
SWODY1
SPC AC 010038

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024

Valid 010100Z - 011200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible this evening across
parts of the northern Great Lakes.

....Northern Great Lakes...
Water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough over
southern Ontario extending into northern Minnesota. Ahead of the
shortwave trough, a band of large-scale ascent appears to be moving
through the vicinity of Lake Superior, where a broken line of
thunderstorms is ongoing. Ahead of this line, surface dewpoints are
in the mid 50s F, and the RAP has SBCAPE of 250 to 500 J/kg. RAP
forecast soundings over upper Michigan have strong deep-layer shear
exceeding 60 knots, and steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This may
be enough for an isolated threat of severe wind gusts. This threat
may persist for another hour or two.

...Broyles.. 09/01/2024

$$

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