Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 31 2024 17:26:45

AWUS01 KWNH 311726
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-312325-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0957
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
125 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024

Areas affected...portions of Pennsylvania, West Virginia, western
Maryland, far eastern Kentucky, and far western Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 311725Z - 312325Z

Summary...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity
over the next several hours.  Increasing rain rates (via cell
mergers and local training) will pose a flash flood risk across
the discussion area through 23Z/7p EST.

Discussion...Radar/satellite indicates an uptick in convective
coverage along and just ahead of a surface wind shift along the
OH/WV border into eastern Kentucky.  A few additional areas of
deepening convection were noted per satellite along higher terrain
in eastern West Virginia.  The storms were in a very moist airmass
(~2 inch PW values) that was becoming increasingly unstable due to
insolation/surface heating.  Most of the storms were fairly
progressive (around 20 knots), although the moist airmass was
supporting spotty MRMS rain rate estimates of 1 inch/hr at times.

Through the afternoon, increasing convective coverage will allow
for more instances of 1 inch/hr rain rates due to local cell
mergers and training.  Additionally, mid-level flow slackens
significantly with southeastward extent, also suggesting slow
storm motions and mergers - especially in West Virginia.  Areas of
2 inch/hr rain rates will eventually materialize.  These rates
should exceed FFG thresholds at times (generally in the 1 inch/hr
range with locally lower values).  These rates will result in an
increasing flash flood risk across the discussion area, with
potential maximizing in central/eastern West Virginia into
south-central Pennsylvania.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_bfbM7PEX2DY9IrWXT6uNOb2uLg65cBunjNyFp4Md1HIOuppkhiVAUsn-F1dKHXtv6zh=
cZO0OQVPUf9Ilgs9KmkLt4c$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...JKL...LWX...MRX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   41307841 41207745 40087736 39227755 37967884=20
            37108083 37098220 37848357 38618254 40088079=20
            40877933=20

=3D =3D =3D
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