Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 31 2024 17:19:07

ACUS02 KWNS 311719
SWODY2
SPC AC 311717

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

....SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms capable of producing damaging gusts still
appear possible from southern New England into the southern
Appalachians on Sunday.

....Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will progress across the northeastern U.S. as an
upper ridge builds across the Plains and a second mid-level trough
impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Sunday). A surface cold front
accompanying the eastern upper trough will sweep across much of the
central, northern U.S. east of the Rockies through the period,
serving as a lifting mechanism for at least scattered thunderstorms
from New England down to the Southern Plains. The best chance for
isolated strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms will be from
southern New England into the central Appalachians, where modest
mid-level flow will overspread a mixing boundary layer by afternoon.


....Southern New England into the central Appalachians...
At least scattered clusters of thunderstorms should develop ahead of
the cold front from southern New England into the central
Appalachians by late morning or early afternoon, when convective
temperatures in the mid 80s F are reached. With surface dewpoints in
the mid 60s to just over 70 F, MLCAPE will exceed 1000 J/kg in most
spots, with parts of the Carolinas seeing up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE,
driven primarily by low-level lapse rates. Stronger mid-level flow
and accompanying vertical wind shear is expected to lag the surface
cold front, with effective bulk shear values likely remaining under
30 kts over most locales. As such, pulse-cellular and perhaps
briefly multicellular convection will be the dominant storm modes.
Given a heated, mixed boundary layer, storms from southern New
England into the central Appalachians may produce a few strong,
damaging wind gusts.

...Squitieri.. 08/31/2024

$$

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