Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2039
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 31 2024 16:40:08

ACUS11 KWNS 311640
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311639=20
PAZ000-WVZ000-MDZ000-OHZ000-311845-

Mesoscale Discussion 2039
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024

Areas affected...Southeast Ohio...southwest
Pennsylvania...northern/central West Virginia...far western Maryland

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 311639Z - 311845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Development of scattered thunderstorms is possible ahead
of the cold front. Wind damage will be the main hazard this
afternoon. A watch is possible depending on trends in convective
intensity.

DISCUSSION...Ahead of a cold front, some areas have already heated
up into the mid/upper 80s F. Morning observed soundings from across
the upper Ohio Valley vicinity show very weak mid-level lapse rates.
This should act to limit overall buoyancy despite the warming
temperatures and moderately moist airmass (mid/upper 60s F
dewpoints). Further, developing thunderstorms will take time to
intensify in such an environment. With very broad, low amplitude
troughing across the lower Great Lakes/Northeast, deep-layer shear
will also be relatively modest as well. The primary risk with storms
this afternoon will be damaging winds as low-level lapse rates
should be steep by the afternoon. This will especially be true
if/where clustering of cold pools can occur.

...Wendt/Bunting.. 08/31/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9rn3gS4kRhE0lPgikMx9Prfa4fpsza-MPdtcyw38qwwXn87vSzneFBgVqxcwdEREt-a_fcate=
zs68tfHRdn0ZK-fIMU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON   38328244 39068234 39558184 40248119 40978027 40947915
            40277875 39027940 38188090 38068225 38328244=20


=3D =3D =3D
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