Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 31 2024 16:01:45

AWUS01 KWNH 311601
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-312159-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0956
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1201 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024

Areas affected...portions of southeast Texas, southern Louisiana,
coastal Mississippi, and coastal Alabama

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 311559Z - 312159Z

Summary...Isolated, yet slow-moving thunderstorms should continue
to slowly drift onto land in the discussion area through the
afternoon.  1-3 inch/hr rain rates should pose flash flood
potential especially in sensitive and urbanized areas.

Discussion...Deep convection continues to persist mainly over
north-central Gulf of Mexico waters in response to confluent flow
east of a tropical low just southeast of Houston, TX.  While most
of the deep convection (with heavier rain rates) have persisted
offshore, latest radar/MRMS imagery indicates spots of heavier
rain rates beginning to reach land areas near Port Arthur, TX and
just southeast of Mobile, AL over the past hour.  The combination
of slow storm motions, 2-2.5 inch PW values, and ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE
(highest offshore) was contributing to efficient rain rates with
more persistent activity.  A few spots of rain rates nearing 2
inches/hr were noted, although most areas were experiencing much
lighter rainfall as showers/isolated storms drift northward over
land.

The ongoing convective scenario should continue over the next 3-6
hours.  Slow movement of the tropical low will continue to promote
confluent onshore flow especially across southeast Texas and
Louisiana for much of the day today, allowing more deeper
convection to gradually reach land areas.  Isolated flash flood
potential will exist - particularly with any heavier rainfall that
can persist over land areas in this regime.  Latest FFG data
suggests extremely sensitive ground conditions in far southeast
Texas (near Beaumont/Port Arthur) and adjacent areas of
southwestern Louisiana, where 2-8 inches of rainfall has fallen in
the past 24 hours.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9WWl_L9pSbykTtrQcpzKjxKsnpOTR3OhSbQUfAklF89PPqUJn8R1YqVI7iNxp4oN0uxG=
-9bvPEFCwtZt0CtCyo4BgKY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   30748776 30488725 30288735 30068761 29878829=20
            29248882 28958963 28969085 29439385 29959440=20
            30089388 30159305 30419230 30449151 30469019=20
            30578911 30738837=20

=3D =3D =3D
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