Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Aug 31 2024 06:00:05 ACUS02 KWNS 310559 SWODY2 SPC AC 310558 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS...AND SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ....SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms capable of producing gusty/damaging winds will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic region to the central and southern Appalachians, and possibly parts of New England on Sunday. ....Synopsis... An upper trough advancing initially across Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes region will progress steadily eastward eastern Canada and the northeastern U.S. through the period. Upstream, ridging will prevail over the West, though an eastern Pacific upper low will approach the Oregon/northern California Coasts late in the period. At the surface, an initial/weakening cold front lingering across New England and the Atlantic Coast states during the first half of the period will be gradually overtaken by a second/stronger front shifting across the Great Lakes/Midwest early in the period. By Monday morning, the front will likely have reached/moved off the New England and Mid-Atlantic Coasts, trailing southwestward across the southeast and Gulf Coast regions. ....Parts of New England to the Mid-Atlantic region, and into the central/southern Appalachians... The remnant surface cold front -- gradually being overtaken by the stronger/reinforcing front -- will serve as a focus for convective activity Sunday. As the upper trough steadily advances, increasingly strong flow aloft will overspread the Northeast/New England. With that said however, substantial questions persist across the Northeast -- particularly into New England -- given likelihood for ongoing convection/cloud cover in the vicinity of the initial/weakening front. Thus, despite increasingly favorable deep-layer shear that would otherwise support well-organized convection, afternoon destabilization potential may be sufficiently hampered so as to substantially limit severe potential. Farther to the south -- across portions of the Mid-Atlantic region and west-southwestward across the Appalachians, somewhat greater destabilization potential is expected, but with weaker flow aloft as compared to areas farther north. Still, shear may prove sufficient when combined with the anticipated/modest afternoon destabilization to support stronger storms locally, and associated risk for gusty outflow winds and local/minor wind damage during the afternoon and early evening hours. ...Goss.. 08/31/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .