Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Aug 30 2024 19:24:58 ACUS03 KWNS 301924 SWODY3 SPC AC 301923 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS VICINITY... ....SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms capable of producing gusty/damaging winds will be possible from New England to the Carolinas Sunday. ....Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough will move across parts of eastern Canada into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Sunday. Within the larger-scale trough, an intensifying cyclone is forecast to move across Quebec, with a cold front extending southward into New England, and then southwestward across the Northeast, Mid Atlantic, OH/MS Valleys, and southern Plains. Farther west, a mid/upper-level cyclone initially off of the CA coast is forecast to move northeastward and approach the Pacific Northwest coast. ....New England to the Carolinas/southern Appalachians... In advance of the primary cold front, a weakening front and related precipitation will move across parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic from Saturday night into Sunday morning. Destabilization potential in the wake of the morning precipitation and cloudiness remains uncertain. With increasing low/midlevel flow in association with the approaching trough, deep-layer shear will become sufficient for organized convection and at least an isolated damaging-wind threat along/ahead of the approaching front, if sufficient destabilization can occur. Farther south, somewhat stronger destabilization will be possible into the southern Appalachians and Carolinas/Virginia, with scattered storm development expected during the afternoon/evening. Deep-layer flow will be weaker compared to areas to the north, but will still be sufficient for modestly organized storm clusters capable of at least isolated damaging wind during the afternoon and evening. ....Arizona... Sufficient moisture will again support thunderstorm development across terrain-favored areas of Arizona during the afternoon. There may be some potential for stronger outflow to spread into lower elevations within a weak easterly midlevel flow regime, though uncertainty is currently high regarding any more organized severe potential within this regime. ...Dean.. 08/30/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .